African Airlines See 3.4% Decrease In Cargo Demand for January 2025

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The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released its “data for January 2025 global air cargo markets.” The data highlighted that “total demand, measured in cargo tonne-kilometers (CTK), rose by 3.2% compared to January 2024 levels (3.6% for international operations)”, while “capacity, measured in available cargo tonne-kilometers (ACTK), increased by 6.8% compared to January 2024.”

According to IATA, “African airlines saw a 3.4% year-on-year decrease in demand for air cargo in January. Capacity increased by 5.4% year-on-year.”

Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General  said: “January marked 18 consecutive months of growth for air cargo, but the month’s 3.2% year-on-year growth is a moderation from double-digit peaks in 2024. Similarly, yields, while still above January 2024 levels, saw a 9.9% decline from December as cargo load factors also declined by an average of 1.5 percentage points.”

The IATA DG stated that while external factors such as trade growth, declining fuel costs and expanding e-commerce remain positive for air cargo, “it is important to closely watch the evolution of market conditions at this time. In particular, the wild card is the potential for tariff-driven trade policies from the US Trump Administration. Fortunately, the air cargo industry is well practiced at dealing with shifts in the operating environment.”

Air Cargo Market in Detail

January 2025 (%year-on-year) World Share *1 CTK ACTK CLF (%-pt) *2 CLF (level) *3
Total Market 100% 3.2% 6.8% -1.5% 43.9%
Africa 2.0% -3.4% 5.4% -3.6% 39.5%
Asia Pacific 34.2% 7.5% 10.9% -1.4% 43.3%
Europe 21.5% 1.3% 3.5% -1.2% 53.8%
Latin America 2.9% 11.2% 10.6% 0.2% 33.5%
Middle East 13.6% -8.4% -1.2% -3.2% 40.8%
North America 25.8% 5.3% 7.5% -0.9% 41.9%

(*1) % of industry CTKs in 2024    (*2) Year-on-year change in load factor     (*3) Load factor level

Trade Lane YoY growth Notes Market share of industry*
Asia-North America +6.1% 15 consecutive months of growth 24.4%
Europe-Asia +3.2% 23 consecutive months of growth 20.5%
Middle East-Europe -7.3%   5.7%
Middle East-Asia -3.0%   7.3%
Within Asia +7.6% 15 consecutive months of growth 7.0%
North America-Europe +9.7% 12 consecutive months of growth 13.3%
Africa-Asia -26.1%   1.4%

*Share is based on full-year 2024 CTKs.

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